What's It Gonna Be - Brexit or Bremain?

Just wanted to pen some thoughts down over breakfast (and make the obligatory EU referendum post) - I don't see Brexit occurring, honestly. As of 20 minutes ago, preliminary results point to Bremain having a slight lead, albeit not a remarkably decisive one. Other incidents, including the murder of Jo Cox, should sway the vote in favour of Bremain, leading to Britain remaining in the Eurozone.

The outcome will be known in just a few hours. Brexit or Bremain?

But what does this imply for us, domestically? Forex trading has definitely been affected - financial institutions and retailers were taking measures to hedge risk, with events reaching panic level as of yesterday. This whole event has definitely put a great amount of fear in some people. "What the hell do I do with my JPY position? If Bremain, JPY will weaken right?" was just one of the quotes I heard floating around amongst my friends. The USD was also a major cause for worry. GBP, of course, was the main superstar.

In any case, I would expect a Brexit to result in GBP dropping to a low not seen in years, with the traditional safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY) appreciating.

My interest lies in the stock market - Brexit would shake our local market, and Bremain would be the more 'status-quo-friendly' result. Regardless, I believe we should all be prepared to adapt to whatever the market situation turns into. Sweet or sour, Brexit or no, we have no choice but to roll with the punches.

To my trader friends who are pulling all-nighters taking care of Forex related work in preparation of the incoming vote result (and who are probably either in the office still or already), kudos to you bunch. You guys are soldiers.

In any case, we'll find out soon, won't we?

Until next time.

** UPDATE: Votes closed in favour of Brexit. GBPSGD has fallen to 1.8 levels. Good time to take a vacation to London? XD

As expected, the STI fell over 60 points, and many stocks are now in the red. I'm out of spare cash, but I would pick some up if I could - market correction would happen next week, I think. The worst thing you could do now as an investor is to panic sell. I understand - my portfolio dropped quite a bit this morning too, but this is a time that calls for steady nerves and clear thought.

It will be interesting to see if the real Brexit actually takes place - this referendum has no official trigger effect, and articles are up and about saying that the government could overrule the vote (using a variety of reasons). If that happens, waters will get even choppier moving forward.


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